Defence Strategy: The Baltic States - Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania & NATO's Eastern Flank

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Designing a military can be hard. Designing a military when your primary adversary is Russia is harder...and doing it with a defence budget that could fit within the scope of a single cost overrun on a Pentagon project is something else entirely.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are commonly referred to as the Baltic States, from 2004 until Finland's accession to the organisation, sat relatively isolated on the Alliance's Eastern flank.

Today, we look at how these states perceive their environment, design their forces to counter the perceived threat - and why they have been some of the strongest advocates in both the EU and NATO for extensive support for Ukraine and a decisive defeat for the Russian Federation..

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Caveats, Comments and Corrections:

All normal caveats and disclaimers apply

In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

At one point I quote a source saying Estonia has 56 howitzers, the correct total of 18 and 36 is 54

Readings and Sources (incomplete, to be filled out):

Unless otherwise noted, platform and personnel figures are usually as per Military Balance 2024

Reference for corruption perception index data is transparency international, e.g.:
https://www.transparency.org/en/count...


The State Defence Concept of Latvia 2023
https://www.mod.gov.lv/sites/mod/file...

Estonia Defence Forces Annual Report 2022
https://issuu.com/sodur/docs/annual_r...

Estonian Ministry of Defence - Setting Transatlantic Defence up for Success: A military strategy for Ukraine's Victory and Russia's Defeat
https://kaitseministeerium.ee/sites/d...

Perun - Defence strategy for small nations
   • Defence strategy for small nations - ...  

CRS: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania: Background and U.S.-Baltic Relations
https://crsreports.congress.gov/produ...

Shiapak & Johnson - Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_re...

Jonathan Masters - How NATO will change if Finland and Sweden become members
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-nato...

Reporting on Lithuania's defence spending plans
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

Estonia's foreign minister warns the Baltics have 3-4 years to prepare for a Russian test of NATO
https://apnews.com/article/poland-est...

NATO navies hold Baltic Sea exercise
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...

Henri Vanhanen - NATO and Northern Europe: No Longer the Forgotten Flank
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/12...

Featured Reuters report on Baltics seeking more NATO presence
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/...

Featured report on Danish artillery donations
https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-t...

Reporting on Estonian artillery donations
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/0...

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russi...

Baltic and Polish leaders visiting Ukraine April 2022
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-uk...

https://www.president.pl/news/preside...

Source of image used for slide on Estonia's concerns about protracted Russian occupation
https://swarajyamag.com/world/estonia...

Featured article on Czech-led ammunition supply efforts
https://www.defensenews.com/global/eu...

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:58 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:22 — History
00:13:57 — Strategic Position
00:20:06 — Perceived Threats & Objectives
00:34:10 — Armed Forces & Approach
00:43:14 — Collective Defence
00:54:33 — Finland & Closing The Door On The Baltic Option
00:58:25 — The Baltic States And Ukraine
01:04:19 — Channel Update