Tesla soars after Hertz announces plan to buy 100,000 cars

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The economics of the rental car industry give companies including Avis Budget Group and Enterprise Holdings multiple reasons to go slow on the adoption of electric vehicles. Just think of how much money they make every time a renter forgets to return a car with a full gas tank. But on Monday, the rental car companies received the biggest reason yet to move quicker to EVs as part of their fleets. The deal between Hertz and Tesla for 100,000 vehicles is a signal to the major car rental companies that a strategy for EVs is going to be needed, and maybe sooner than they had planned on it.

It was not a surprise to auto industry analyst John Healy of Northcoast Research that Hertz is the first among the small group of major rental car companies to place a big bet on EVs. After an era of industry consolidation, the three companies represent as much as 95% of the car rental agencies at an airport terminal: Enterprise owns Alamo and National; Hertz owns Dollar and Thrifty; Avis combined with Budget. But it’s only Hertz that has offered EVs in any significant way to date, and its focus was limited to the niche market of luxury renters using its premium services such as Ultimate Choice.

“There hasn’t been a lot going on in electric,” said Healy.

That “ultimate” vehicle category offered consumers access to high-end electric cars from Porsche and Tesla, among others, but the numbers were at the level of a “few hundred” in the fleet versus the 100,000 Teslas in the Hertz deal. “They were trying to make money renting cars, not meet this niche,” Healy said of the main competitors. Hertz saw the affluent renter combined with an EV “intrigue” factor as enough of a reason to experiment on the margins of the business, “but nothing more than that,” Healy said.

Enterprise and Avis Budget did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

If demand hasn’t been there yet to justify a major spend on an EV fleet, the Hertz deal may be the signal that the time has come. But there are big economic hurdles for the rental car industry to overcome that are related to hesitation about EVs to date.

As Hertz prepares to re-IPO after restructuring under private equity investors and with former Ford CEO Mark Fields in as interim-CEO, the Tesla headline gives it another way to differentiate itself in a consolidated rental car space. But ultimately EV fleets are an issue the major rental car companies are all going to need to work through as part of sustainability commitments and new economic thinking.

Dan Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities who covers Tesla, said the rental car fleets were always viewed as “untouchable” because of the scale of their bulk purchases. “The fact that Hertz dove into the deep end of pool and is spending over $4 billion, that was never even on the radar for the likes of a Tesla,” he said. But now it represents a tipping point not only in EV interest from the market but the supply that Tesla can produce with its factory operations expanding around the world and, within the U.S., to Austin.

The rental car industry represents 1.5 million to 2 million cars per year, a significant part of new sales.

“For Tesla that is 2 million cars that were never on the radar,” Ives said.

Tesla reached a $1 trillion market capitalization on Monday after the deal was announced.

“This announcement is a clear signal from Tesla that they can deliver a large volume of vehicles,” Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, wrote in an emailed statement to CNBC.

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